I agree and yet at the same time, I don't agree.  Most of these arguments can be also used for only owning ONE console, as if you own a 360, why buy a PS3?  Maybe you really like LIVE over PSN as far as the online argument goes.

Really in the end it just depends on if there is a unique experience to be had on the Wii, and one that people actually want enough to purchase it.  It doesn't sound like that experience will be 'the best looking games' as I don't believe it was announced to have HDMI, but Nintendo hasn't been going after that market anyway.  So it'll depend highly on the Wii U's exclusive games- Mario, Zelda, Smash Brothers, perhaps Metroid if people haven't been burned too badly by Other M.

There's also the price point- one of the successes of the Wii isn't simply due to the games- but the fact that more people can afford it.  Even as a secondary gaming console,  as long as it is cheap enough I imagine it will do well enough.

The bigger problem with third parties seems to be the timing of all this. Sure the Wii U is getting a port of Batman Arkham City, but it's coming out a whole year after the original release of the game. Will anyone really care at that point? 

To make matters worse, while third parties will surely be porting to this thing soon after release, they'll only get one or two good years out of it before the next Sony or Microsoft consoles are released and feature more powerful hardware. At that point the Wii U is in the same situation as the Wii is now: an underpowered and underserved, second-class console. 

I don't think that trophies and in-game achievements are as big a factor as you imply. But Nintendo's shitty online functionality will definitely cripple them in the long term. While Nintendo's "blue ocean" strategy served them well with the Wii, their antipathy towards online gaming could be their undoing.

HD ports and remakes of Nintendo first-party franchises won't sell me on the Wii U.

How Nintendo's next system might fare is going to depend heavily on what Sony and Microsoft choose to do with their next consoles, which are unknown quantities at this point. As is the Wii U, really. There's so much that's unknown at this point that it seems pretty premature to be calling doom and gloom. 

All I can say at this point is that I'm intrigued, and that I'm eager to see what Nintendo makes of the thing.  

I think Nintendo has solved what was the Wii's biggest problem: a controller that is too different from the other consoles.  The Wii U tablet does have a unique feature, but around that is built a "standard", full function controller with the same buttons as the other consoles.  It was just too awkward to port games from the HD consoles to work with the Wii remote, but the Wii U shouldn't have that problem.  I think it will be much more viable for publishers to port to the Wii U.

I don’t agree that Nintendo’s current audience can be so simply broken down into those two categories. Nintendo does have a reputation among hardcore gamers as being the ‘family’ console, but I would bet that there are a decent amount of people like me that own all 3 current-gen systems. I think that the idea that Nintendo alienated fans of mature titles has some credence, but I also think that in some ways it’s the vocal minority being heard.

Third-party support has dwindled as the Wii has aged, and I agree with your point that it’s a concern for Nintendo. I would, however, suggest that it’s not Nintendo’s problem entirely – really, how much creativity and innovation (key to developing titles that will showcase the Wii U’s features) do we see on ANY console? Not much, if you ask me. A large – arguably the largest – amount of titles that are creative and innovative are found in the downloadable space. It’s far to early to believe that third-parties will just port titles…but Nintendo needs to sell them on exactly how and why they should spend money on development.

The Wii’s online has absolutely been a disappointment. I still can’t believe how clunky, unattractive, and half-baked the online component is. (I still dig the VC store’s music, even after all this time. Guess I never had any reason to spend enough time in there to get really sick of it.) The early buzz I’ve heard is that Nintendo is going to put the burden on the third-parties to fill the Wii U’s online space.  This doesn’t bode well.

As far as the achievements and such – Nintendo has a great opportunity here. My suggestion: tie achievements to EVERYTHING that the Wii U does, and track it all with individual logins. Video chatting for the first time? Trophy. Switching from the TV to the controller? Trophy. All the unique features of that system, plus game-specific achievements should be tracked and rewarded. I’m as aware as anyone that achievements are kind of strange – the idea that we’re constantly being told “Great Job” can be a little silly. It works, though, and it keeps even casual gamers engaged. If Nintendo can be persuaded to have a global login for online games, then this shouldn’t be a giant problem.

Two big problems I foresee – one, while that controller is pretty cool, those analog disks really turn me off. Two, if Sony has any sense (I love ‘em but this remains to be seen) they’ll showcase the PSV and the PS3 doing as much of the Wii U’s functions as possible.

Finally, it’s a Nintendo system – if it’s priced right, I think it’ll sell. Let’s hope developers find a way to make it a more rounded experience this time.

The thing with Third Parties are that they are afraid of innovation and new IPs for the current systems.  Of course, ports are way to make money and test the waters to see how their products will do on a system like the Wii and Wii U.  One main thing is that TP's think they will make money on 360/PS3 when in fact, its still a risk move of being shut down after the game release.  Though that is more developers than actual publishers, the TPs have to come with original content.

A lot of people don't like Nintendo's online service for many reasons but think about the complaining of gamers with just 360 chat and the PS3 fiasco.  We know their online service isn't great and up to par with 360/PS3 but Nintendo never been known for online connectivity.  Their philosophy is connecting physically than virtually.  We as gamers are going to have to help Nintendo with feedback and questions. 

If TPs think they won't make money on the Wii U proves that they believe in a old formula themselves that will fail.  It cannot be about shooters and 6-8 hours worth of gameplay without nothing new or completely weird and out of the box that actually work.  They will have to make some failures in order to find what sticks.