Hardcore Gamers' Reaction to Nintendo's E3 Conference: An Empirical Study

Editor's note: I don't envy Andrew the job of sorting and categorizing the posts in NeoGAF's Nintendo conference thread, but I'm glad he did! The results aren't surprising, but no less fascinating. Hit that 'Read more' for the full discussion. -Demian


Abstract:
The online community at NeoGAF.com focuses its attention almost exclusively on videogames. The conversations can be indecipherable to outsiders, even those familiar with videogames. This passionate group of fans is one of the most influential in the industry. During live events, specific threads provide insight into the reactions of the community. It is the intention of this study to reveal their real time reactions to such an event, Nintendo's E3 press conference held on June 2, 2009.

Methodology: In order to chart these reactions, I assigned a score to each comment. If a comment was optimistic or positive, it scored +1. If it was negative, it scored -1. NeoGAF time stamps each post to the minute, so for every minute interval during the press conference, the sum total of response scores were charted.

A Positive Remark: Any remark that was positive in nature, either optimistic for events that may happen within the conference or approving of events as they happened. These were restricted to the actual conference happenings.

A Negative Remark: Any remark that was negative in nature, either pessimistic of what was to come, or disapproving of events as they happened. These were restricted to the actual conference happenings.

Ambiguous, Irrelevant, or Otherwise Unusable Data: Some comments provided responses that were difficult to gauge, and these were ignored. Comments regarding the quality of the stream were also ignored. And finally, some comments that were making demands of Nintendo during the conference without providing an idea of attitude were also dismissed (an example: "Where's my Zeruda?," while asking for a Zelda game at the conference, reflected neither a positive nor negative attitude at the time of expression).

Events: Certain events are listed in the chart. These are associated with a time interval based on the first post citing it within the NeoGAF thread.

Difficulties Encountered: The above graph reflects the score, but does not account for posts/minute. A particular time interval's score, if close to 0 (Zero), can either account for a low posts/minute ratio, or a high posts/minute ratio in which opinion was mixed.

Also, many of the participants within the thread were viewing different streams, some slightly time delayed. This resulted in certain opinions being expressed out of sync of the actual conference.

Conclusions: The reaction data mirrored what one would expect after categorizing conference topics as "casual" or "hardcore." NeoGAF showed that they were intensely interested in hardcore subjects and games while not interested in casual subjects and games. They also were disapproving of items that were known prior to discussion in this particular conference.

While this is an obvious conclusion, the positive scores upon the appearance of Nintendo of America President and COO Reggie Fils-Aime and Nintendo President Satoru Iwata, and the eventual decline into negative scores once it was realized they were discussion casual subjects, sales figures, or some other phenomena frowned upon by the community, is quite interesting. This reveals a certain hero quality ascribed to these executives -- the interest level even spikes when Fils-Aime beats Bill Trinen, senior manager, product marketing (NOA), at Wii Sports Resort basketball. I will also point out that they really hate Cammie Dunaway, executive vp, sales & marketing (NOA), whose news announcements also tend to be more casual.

Reggie vs. Bill battle for nerd supremacy

Another point of interest: the time between the discussion of the Wii Vitality Sensor (scoring 80 negative remarks in a single minute) and then the reveal of Super Mario Galaxy 2. This represented a 129 point change in under four minutes. Videogamers at NeoGAF hold very strong opinions and will change them very quickly during an event of this nature.

Comments (16)

Cute concept. It must've been absolutely dreadful to wade through all those posts to get the data, though. I hope you had an intern or somebody to do it for you!

Are gaffers all that influential to the Japanese developers? I know that American developers are constantly referring to posts on GAF or posting there themselves, but I was unaware if Nintendo gave a shit what anybody, anywhere thought.
Alexei GB , June 05, 2009
Actually, it was fun. As I "compiled" data I laughed, as my line graph was created. It took a little longer than writing an actually post, but not much.

I'm not so sure about the Japanese part of Nintendo, in terms of tuning into GAF... I don't read much into the Japanese culture of gamers. But Reggie did say that he "read the blogs", so I would say he (and by he, I mean someone else whose exclusive job is to offer summaries, or at least that's what I envision) is pretty tuned into what the crowd there has to say, or at least those like them.
Andrew Hiscock , June 05, 2009
Lol, nice graph. But I bet you the line is way way lower at the "Women's Murder Club" point in the graph. smilies/grin.gif
Carlos García , June 05, 2009
I thought it was interesting that they "didn't like" things they knew about before.
Chad Tobin , June 05, 2009
This is pretty cool. Interesting to see the spikes just because Reggie and Iwata show up...I wonder i it would have gone higher for Miyamoto.
Leonard Helferty , June 05, 2009
If you could "normalize" the data dividing the raw score by the number of posts in that minute, it might reveal a better picture.
Daniel Porter , June 06, 2009
Great graph! It shows how much of a surprise the new metroid announcement was figuring it spiked even higher than the mario based games. Nice work Andrew. smilies/smiley.gif
Brad Guise , June 06, 2009
Excellent idea! If I had a hat on at the moment, it would be off to you for wading through all of those posts. It seems to describe the moments quite well as I can say that is exactly how I felt through most of the conference as well (except that spike at the mention of Golden Sun DS would be off the chart for me).
Max Besong , June 06, 2009
Interesting that the Mario announcement spiked high. Maybe the negative voices are louder, but overwhelmingly the responses I've read from "Another Mario Galaxy Game?" were just that.

Good to see how people really feel about it. Sorta.
Bryan Harper , June 06, 2009
Andrew, you are an animal. Keep coming up with these new angles to approach the same old game news and you'll find yourself on the first page every day. Good on you, my man.
Matt Howard , June 06, 2009
I like the idea and it is interesting, but I'm not sure about what, if any, implication this sample group means for the larger gaming community.
Eric Dietz , June 06, 2009
This was awesome. Give us more.
Steven Hicks , June 08, 2009
Awesome! Fits my memory of the how it played out exactly.
Nick Munson , January 08, 2010
This is a very interesting way to analyze a press conference. If the posters on neoGAF are anything at all, they are vocal about their opinions, so they do represent in some way the most hardcore and opinionated members of the gaming audience.

I hope you do this again for the next E3!
Spencer Gregory , January 09, 2010
Jesus Christ! Are you nuts?

Okay, I'll do it.
Andrew Hiscock , January 10, 2010
Impressive. Most impressive.
Jay Henningsen , January 10, 2010

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