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Streaming, Not Digital Downloads, Is the Future
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Friday, December 04, 2009

Editor's note: Many gamers see digital downloads as the future of games. Jim sees digital as the present -- streaming's the future. And I agree. Imagine never needing to buy a console or upgrade a PC again to play games. -Jason


The discussion about digital downloads as "the future" of video games continues to increase. Theories say that we'll be downloading all of our media within the next 15 years. If digital downloads are the future, I must've hit 88 mph in my DeLorean and zoomed into 2025 -- the last time I checked, I was downloading games like crazy.

I have a Steam account. I have dozens of Xbox Live Arcade games and a few PlayStation Network games. The last time I checked, you could download Xbox 360 games to your hard drive. All of the iPhone's software comes via digital download -- it must be some alien technology!

Digital downloads are the present, not the future. The streaming of video games is the future.

 

We already steam videos on the Internet. In case you weren't aware, every time you watch a YouTube video, you aren't downloading it -- you're steaming it. Streaming's huge in music; MySpace, Pandora, and Last.fm are all sources of streaming music. It's how I listen to a good chunk of music now. Xbox 360's latest dashboard update allows for 1080p instant streaming of movies. About half of the people on my friends list stream Netflix movies to their consoles.

So, when do we start streaming video games?

Let's ask OnLive, the service that made its public debut at this year's GDC. OnLive's announcement resulted in gamers asking some difficult questions about the future of video games. OnLive, who claims that they will be up and running this winter (it says 2009 on their website, but I just checked the calendar, and, well...they are running out of time), claims they will be able to use your broadband Internet connection to stream any video game to your TV, PC, or Mac regardless of it's specs. How can they do this? Well, technically, you would just be controlling a streaming video. The game machine is on their side.

It sounds pretty unbelievable, and tons of technical naysayers have assailed the concept. But I believe the service will work. I see two ways this technology could be implemented.

The first is what I like to call the "Utopia outcome." Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo stop making consoles and just make games for the service. Otherwise known as the “one console future,” we would either pay a monthly fee or pay for the license to stream certain games -- $60 may bag you the rights to stream Halo 4.

This is the more likely result: Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo buys the technology and makes it their next console, leaving the “other two” to scramble to compete. It's definitely an interesting way to look at it; the repercussions are massive. If Sony was to buy the tech, they could build it into televisions -- imagine a new Sony Bravia with the capability to stream PlayStation games. Microsoft could build game streaming into Windows.

Nintendo...you know, let's not think about what Nintendo could do with it.

Building streaming tech into preexisting devices and software would not only make it easier for these big corporations to incorporate it, it would also be in front of millions of more consumers than a console would. My sister would buy an HDTV but never a console. The potential for her to pick up a controller to play a game that's streamed to her TV is huge.

This is the future of video games -- never worrying again about what console to buy or if your PC could run the latest games. The only thing we would have to worry about is if we had enough time in our day to play all these games -- and, of course, if our broadband pipes are “fat” enough to handle the bandwidth.

I could write a whole different article on whether or not I think the technology will actually work, but I think over time, home Internet connections and the availability of broadband Internet will improve. A few years of refining would refine the streaming. You could raise a stink about how you would actually never “own” a game ever again, but I think the trade off is worth it.

Streaming video games would obviously be a monumental change to business as usual and is probably a scary thought for console makers and publishers (not to mention retailers like GameStop), but you can't deny it's a sweeping change in the right direction. Console-exclusive games only benefit the console maker, who hopes to sell more consoles than the other guy. If every game were available to everyone, gamemakers could sell more games. Multiplayer communities may also benefit from an influx of gamers who were previously unable to play certain games. PC games would also get a boost, because now any PC could run any game.

I can't predict when we'll walk into this video-game promised land -- or even if it will happen. But I certainly hope it does. It's just going to take some major corporations to move slightly quicker than the glacial pace they currently move at -- and maybe put their customer's best interests first.


I originally posted this blog at www.fourplayercoop.com.

 
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Comments (13)
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December 02, 2009
I think Steam is doing great on the digital distribution. PlayStation needs to bring down prices with the PSPgo and it will go better.
Default_picture
December 03, 2009
I'm not an engineer or a programmer, but I remember reading about the OnLive service and if it was possible nation wide, I think I remember one site actually calculating the amount of data it would take, way beyond the amount many people can afford/or actually buy.
This is from memory, so it could be entirely wrong, just my two cents.
John-wayne-rooster-cogburn
December 03, 2009
Good point! I would love to be able to play all of the PC games I've missed over the last couple of years, simply because my PC wasn't powerful enough.

As a side note, I know a guy that's actually making the servers for OnLive.
Default_picture
December 03, 2009
I agree with William. Even if streaming media is the next huge thing (which it hasn't, since it's been around for years), the data transfer between the hosts and the consumers could end up becoming so massive, the internet backbone would shudder to it's knees while pointing the gun at it's head.

The only reasonable way to support this would to have multiple hosts at a location to support this mass subscription to only those that are local, and then continue a hierarchical topography just like the internet, but only after technology has made numerous upgrades to throughput.

It's a good concept, but I doubt it'd make good performance-wise until at least another 25 years.
Robsavillo
December 03, 2009
The fact is that you're a part of the small minority of gamers who download games. Digital distribution is the future for the simple reason that physical media still reigns supreme.

And if streaming really is the far-off future, count me out. I rather enjoy owning the things I buy instead of renting them. I imagine streaming games means a subscription business model, which is a content provider's wet dream.

They'd love to build the content jukebox, where everything is "licensed" out. It's the "pay-to-play" scheme.
Default_picture
December 03, 2009
Great article, and I agree completely.

And you skeptics, you're thinking in American terms. This would be, and probably is right now, possible in smaller, more technologically developed nations.

Not trying to hate on the US here, it's just that 100 mbit connections are commonplace in alot of smaller European nations - the same goes for Japan and South Korea. The latter actually have 1 gbit connections more or less everywhere, and most new houses are built with 1 gbit fiber connections for a measly fee. Bandwidth caps are also mostly a US/UK thing for some reason.

With a nation so large and with infrastructure so spread out as the US though, the problem you point out is valid.

I would however think that this will be fixed in less then 10 years. 25 years is an absolutely huge timeframe at the rate technology, and in particular, the internet, is evolving.
Default_picture
December 03, 2009
I grew very interested in OnLive after they announced it at E3 so I watched all the interviews and read all thr FAQs they had posted and one of the biggest sticking points for a lot of people was concern over bandwidth. However what a lot of people don't seem to realize about the aervice is that the bandwidth strain isn't much more than streaming video. Essentially all you are doing on the consumer end is streaming a live video of the game and sending back input to it in the form of controls. So any strain on the network is not
much more than a live video stream would entail.

The bigger concern is really latency. If the service is unable to keep up with constant control input then consumer is more than likely to simply ignore it.
Regardless of these concerns I still think streaming is a very interesting option for the future of video games. Even if it never actually supplants consoles having it as an alternative will be great for everyone.
Franksmall
December 03, 2009
I am so excited about the idea of OnLive, but do have major concerns- namely if it works and what the pricing will be.

They will never convince me to pay $60 for a game if I cannot know for sure I will still be able to play it even if the service goes away.

Steam gives me that comfort.

I love the idea of the one console future, but do think it is too pie-in-the-sky to ever work out like that.

Maybe it would if EA buys OnLive and makes it their version of a 'console' while stopping making games for the other consoles... but I don't see that happening.

Till I see more proof that this concept can work in the real world, I have to doubt it will happen.

I sure would love if games were all about the games themselves and not about what system maker can stoke their rabid fanbase the most.
Default_picture
December 04, 2009
What happens when I want to play a game again a few years after it's first offered and no longer can because it's not being streamed anymore?

How will I play a fast-paced multi-player game with the multiple hops from the streaming server and back again introducing a lot of latency?

What if I'm in an internet backwater like Australia (which I am) where unlimited internet is not the norm and I have a low download cap? Or in a rural area where broadband is patchy or slow?

Only something like half of all XBox 360 buyers actually connect to Live, and that's probably the most 'hardcore' of all current systems. Is there enough money in this 'hardcore' niche of a niche to make a streaming service viable? I can't see the Wii-buying general public really being interested.
Default_picture
December 04, 2009
I had this same idea a while back and think it's very plausible. Once fiber-optic lines become more common I don't see why companies couldn't start small (arcade or psn titles) and work their way up.
Default_picture
December 04, 2009
I have to say, quite interesting. Especially your point about digital being the present, the more I thnk about it thats how I get 80% of my games... Hell the last one I bought from a store was World of Goo (although I don't know why I didn't get that digitally).

I know it's already been said but think of places like Australia, I heard this 2-3 months again in a magazine and immediately thought "not here, not now". I'm just getting the wires layed down for broadband THIS WEEK and I live in medium density residential, in the states capital. Even then, I won't be afraid to admit, it's gonna be 50 bucks a month for 12g cap @1.5mbps

How much bandwidth is streaming hd video using? In America it may be 'wide enough' but you guys don't know the meaning of being capped.

So for some, maybe, I think the whole world still has to settle with digital. Although all the people visiting this site are likely to have thrown away their petty precautions and saved a bucketload of cash by making the switch to digital. However, most of my non tamer friends only used steam after buying a game which needed it to activate. Those people who play xbox, buy the new (terrible) Call of Duty or Gears of War every year from gamestop, they're the ones who are needing to catch up (and ps3 and wii especially, I just like to pick on xboxers). They are the mass consumers.
5211_100857553261324_100000112393199_12455_5449490_n
December 05, 2009
I do not see Streaming becoming mainstream (interesting.) until the dream of universally available, affordable and reliable broadband is able to reach all corners of the STATES, at the very least. Digital Distribution is just barely in my grasp as it is, and even then, I'm waiting a day or two before the game's finished downloading/updating. Not that I'm complaining, since it beats shipping time from an online site, but hell, I can barely stream The Colbert Report. No way I'm gonna be able to stream Assassin's Creed 2. Not for the foreseeable future.

There's a few more road bumps to pass before we're in the smooth.
Default_picture
December 05, 2009
I agree.

Streaming is the way to go.
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